2024 San Francisco Fantasy Supercross Tips, Picks [12 Fast Facts]

Often, the opening round of the Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series can be perplexing and offer no insight into how the beginning of the season will unfold. However, this year, A1 had no huge surprises and some affirmations. So, let’s get to the 2024 San Francisco Fantasy Supercross Tips and Picks.

1. There will likely be rain in San Francisco. My go-to weather prediction site is Wunderground.com. At publication, the chance of rain at Oracle Park is 50 percent starting at 2 a.m. on Saturday, and stays above that level until 6 p.m. However, the rain won’t be too heavy, with less than a half-inch predicted over the entire day. So, look for ruts more than muck—this likely won’t be a repeat of the 2006 mud debacle at Oracle Park.
2. History tells us that the cream rises to the top, even on a wet or muddy track, so that will not change my predictions. The days of mud specialists coming out and cleaning up seem to have faded into the past. The best riders are the best, regardless of conditions.
3. No one riding has ever won at Oracle Park. The last time the Supercross series visited Oracle Park was in 2010, and Ryan Villopoto took the win.

4. Jett Lawrence dominated A1, erasing any questions about his rookie status. He is the odds-on favorite to win. Pick someone else at your own risk.

5. Cooper Webb came out swinging at A1. If Webb’s rear wheel had not hit an unexpected bump on the face of a jump, he would almost certainly have finished in P2. He has gelled with the Yamaha incredibly fast, so look for him to hit the checkered flag ahead of everyone except Jett.

6. In his first time out on the KTM, Chase Sexton had a solid race. While Sexton was gifted the podium because Webb crashed, he looked good and learned some lessons about setting the KTM up. That should be enough to return him to the podium at Oracle Park.

7. As good as Jason Anderson looked at A1, he will have stiffer competition in San Francisco. Webb is not likely to hand P2 to Anderson at Oracle Park, and Sexton should be better on his sophomore KTM outing. Given that, I have Anderson for P4, though I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he finishes in P2 again. We should learn quite a bit about Anderson’s season at San Francisco.

8. After going down in the treacherous right-hand first turn at A1, Ken Roczen rode strong. Roczen’s Heat win and comeback performance in the Main from dead last to P10 is enough for me to go with him for P5 again this week.

9. It looks like Eli Tomac’s comeback will not be as instantaneous as I expected. Rather than storming the podium, Tomac was the slowest member of the Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing team. Tomac’s P9 ride put him behind Justin Cooper (P8) and Cooper Webb (P6). I expect Tomac to settle in and finish higher in San Francisco, but he’ll have to earn my top-five pick.

10. Aaron Plessinger, Dylan Ferrandis, and Malcolm Stewart are worthy of top five consideration. Both benefited from the crashes of Webb and Roczen to hit the top five at A1. Ferrandis gets extra credit for finishing in P5 in his first ride on the Firepower Honda. Stewart hung with Roczen on his charge through the pack. So, if you’re not sure about Roczen, Ferrandis for P5 again is a strong choice, with Plessinger next up. It’s tough to pick Stewart for P5 over Roczen, given he finished behind Roczen when both went down. The P5 slot is going to be an interesting one to watch.

11. The Wild Card is P15, so that makes it anyone’s guess. The lower the Wild Card position, the harder it is to make a choice—it could be someone who didn’t even make the A1 Main. Riders finishing in that vicinity last week included Jorge Prado (P13), Justin Hill (P14), Derek Drake (P15), Dean Wilson (P16) and Shane McElrath (P17). It was Prado’s first Supercross, so he should move up the ranks at San Francisco. Wilson got knocked down by Vince Friese, so Wilson should improve by more than one spot in San Francisco. That puts Justin Hill in the Wild Card slot for me, though Drake could repeat, and McElrath could step up a couple of slots.

12. The first 250SX Heat at Oracle Park is at 5:30 p.m. local time. Check our 2024 Supercross Television Schedule for viewing details.

2024 San Francisco Fantasy Supercross Picks

1. Jett Lawrence
2. Cooper Webb
3. Chase Sexton
4. Jason Anderson
5. Ken Roczen

   • Wild Card P15: Justin Hill

Exclusive photography by Will Embree / SMX Pictures

2024 Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 1 of 17 rounds)

1. Jett Lawrence, Honda, 25 points (1W, 1P, 1 T5)
2. Jason Anderson, Kawasaki, 22 (1P, 1 T5)
3. Chase Sexton, KTM, 20 (1P 1 T5)
4. Aaron Plessinger, KTM, 18 (1 T5)
5. Dylan Ferrandis, Honda, 17 (1 T5)
6. Cooper Webb, Yamaha, 16
7. Justin Barcia, GasGas, 15
8. Justin Cooper, Yamaha, 14
9. Eli Tomac, Yamaha, 13
10. Ken Roczen, Suzuki, 12
11. Malcolm Stewart, Husqvarna, 11
12. Adam Cianciarulo, Kawasaki, 10
13. Jorge Prado, GasGas, 9
14. Justin Hill, KTM, 8
15. Derek Drake, Suzuki, 7
16. Dean Wilson, Honda, 6
17. Shane McElrath, Suzuki, 5
18. Kyle Chisholm, Suzuki, 4
19. Cade Clason, Kawasaki, 3
20. Christian Craig, Husqvarna, 2
21. Freddie Norén, Kawasaki, 1