The fifth round of the 2024 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship hints at the promise of the year’s first “normal” racing Saturday. 2024 kicked off with the A1 opener, which is always an odd race. Two mud races followed, and then a Triple Crown. The Detroit round at Ford Field is indoors and is a traditional Heats/LCQ/Main format. So, what have we learned in the four off-beat rounds leading up to Detroit? Let’s find out in our 2024 Detroit Supercross Fantasy tips and picks.
- There have been four winners in four rounds, but that’s just scratching the surface. Each of the top four riders in the standings has a win—Jett Lawrence (A1), Chase Sexton (San Francisco), Aaron Plessinger (San Diego), and Cooper Webb (A2). That’s some parity for you, and former Supercross champions Eli Tomac and Jason Anderson aren’t on the list yet. Is it worth mentioning that Tomac has four Ford Field wins, with Anderson and Sexton having one each? And let’s not forget that Ken Roczen has 21 career 450SX wins. We haven’t even gotten started, and we have seven legit possibilities for the win, and somehow, we’re supposed to pick a top five for RMFantasySX.
- Four riders have two podiums in 2024: Plessinger, Sexton, Webb, and Tomac. We have to pick a podium, and there are four riders tied with the most podiums this year, and none of them have been on the box in more than half the races. That’s vexing.
- Aaron Plessinger is the only rider in the top five at all four rounds. He is also leading the championship, as he has as many wins and podiums in 2024 as any rider. He leads in all categories.
- Two riders have three top-fives, four have two top-fives, and four have a single top-five. That makes 10 riders in four rounds who have made the top five. No doubt about it, the deeper you dig into it, the more complex the Detroit fantasy supercross picks get.
- Given that there are precious few trends to follow and the numbers are consistently contradictory, I will narrow it down to the best dry performances. If there’s one thing we can be sure of, it won’t be muddy inside domed Ford Field.
- The two dry winners are Jett Lawrence and Cooper Webb. The tricky part is, when each of them didn’t win, they finished in P6! It appears to be feast or famine should you pick them to win—you either get P1 points or nothing. If you picked them in RMFantasySX to finish in the top five in both A1 and A2, you got shut out twice in points.
- Jason Anderson is the next best dry rider, followed by Aaron Plessinger and Chase Sexton. His 2-4 dry results give him just one less series point than the P1/6 combos of Lawrence and Webb. This also means he scores fantasy points in both dry rounds, as did Plessinger (4-3) and Sexton (3-5). So, we have two dry winners and three two-time dry top-five riders. So, that’s my top five for Detroit—maybe.
- Counting each Triple Crown Race as a stand-alone race, there have been four dry race winners. Lawrence won A1, while Sexton, Anderson, and Tomac each had a dry Triple Crown Race win. That’s still not much help, especially as it adds Tomac to the mix. We’re trying to narrow things down, not expand the possibilities.
- Overall, Sexton has looked the best in the dry, so I’m putting him into the P1 position at Detroit. Sexton finished P3 at A1, and had a P1 and P2 finish in the A2 Triple Crown. His only blemish was a P11 calamity at A2. It’s not a strong recommendation, but it makes the most sense.
- Cooper Webb hasn’t won a race yet, despite winning the overall at A2. He took the A2 Triple Crown without winning a Race, going 2-2-5. His P6 at A1 did not impress, though. Given that, I have Webb down for P2 at Ford Field.
- Aaron Plessinger is leading the standings, but he is still suspect in the dry. He went 6-4-3 in the A2 Triple Crown and was P4 at A1. That makes him a good P3 pick.
- Jason Anderson looks good when it’s dry, but not quite good enough to be a podium pick. He was P2 at A1, and won a A2 Triple Crown Race. However, Anderson was P4 and P8 in the other A2 TC Races, dropping him down to P4 for me.
- Jett Lawrence is up next, as he is having problems. He looked ready to run the table after A1. However, things have not gone well since. He hasn’t been on the podium, and his A2 dry performance of 7-3-4 isn’t inspiring. Lawrence could turn it around at Ford Field and win handily, or continue to struggle. He needs to prove himself, so I have him down for P5.
- If you had told me before A1 that these would be my Detroit picks, I wouldn’t have believed it. These picks may be great, or I may end up with just a few RMFantasySX crumbs. Rather than copy my picks, consider all the stats and weigh them in a manner that suits you. This week’s column is more about “tips” than “picks”.
- The Wild Card is P15—good luck with that. Easily, 10 riders could end up in P15, and whoever you pick might not even make the Detroit Main. Although he has not scored a point in the dry, Justin Hill was P14 at A1 and P15 at A2, so he is my RMFantasySX Wild Card pick. Other possibilities include Christian Craig (P14 at A2), Derek Drake (P15 at A1), Vince Friese (P16 at A2), and Dean Wilson (P15 at A1; DNQ at A2).
- It’s an early start for the Detroit Supercross. The racing starts at 3 p.m. EST, which means noon on the West Coast. The 450SX Heats are first, so don’t be late! We have all the viewing details in our 2024 Supercross Television Schedule, which you definitely want to bookmark.
2024 Detroit Supercross Fantasy Picks
- Chase Sexton
- Cooper Webb
- Aaron Plessinger
- Jason Anderson
- Jett Lawrence
P15 Wild Card: Justin Hill
Photography courtesy of Align Media, Feld Entertainment, Octopi Media, et al.
2024 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 4 of 17 rounds)
- Aaron Plessinger, KTM, 80 points (1W, 2P, 4 T5)
- Chase Sexton, KTM, 76 (1W, 2P, 3 T5)
- Cooper Webb, Yamaha, 74 (1W, 2P, 2 T5)
- Jett Lawrence, Honda, 72 (1W, 1P, 2 T5)
- Eli Tomac, Yamaha, 70 (2P, 2 T5)
- Jason Anderson, Kawasaki, 67 (1P, 3 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, Honda, 62 (1 T5)
- Ken Roczen, Suzuki, 57 (1P, 1 T5)
- Justin Barcia, GasGas, 49 (1P, 1 T5)
- Jorge Prado, GasGas, 45
- Hunter Lawrence, 38
- Justin Cooper, Yamaha, 36
- Shane McElrath, Suzuki, 33 (1 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, Kawasaki, 33
- Malcolm Stewart, Husqvarna, 24
- Dean Wilson, Honda, 24
- Christian Craig, Husqvarna, 20
- Derek Drake, Suzuki, 17
- Justin Hill, KTM, 15
- Freddie Norén, Kawasaki, 11
- Cade Clason, Kawasaki, 10
- Benny Bloss, Beta, 9
- Kyle Chisholm, Suzuki, 9
- Austin Politelli, GasGas, 7
- Vince Friese, Honda, 6
- Justin Rodbell, KTM, 5
- Jason Clermont, Kawasaki, 1
