Now, just past the one-third point in the 2024 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series, it’s no easier to pick a solid top-five for the next round. Rolling into AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, seven legit top-five riders and history demand to be heard when picking a winner. It has never been tougher in RMFantasySX.com competition. Of course, that won’t stop us from offering some practical 2024 Arlington Supercross fantasy picks and tips.
- Seven riders have three or four top-five finishes in the opening six rounds. Jason Anderson leads the way with five top-five finishes. Jett Lawrence, Chase Sexton, and Aaron Plessinger each have four top-four finishes. Cooper Webb, Ken Roczen, and Eli Tomac have a top-five finish in half of the races. Oh, and there’s one more wrinkle—Hunter Lawrence scored his first top-five finish in the last Main Event two weeks ago in Glendale.
- We have four riders with solid claims to favorite status at Arlington—Series leader Jett Lawrence, two-time 450SX champions Cooper Webb and Eli Tomac, and the surging Ken Roczen. That list doesn’t even include two of the top three riders in the 2024 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series—Chase Sexton and Aaron Plessinger, who each have a Main Event win this year. Add them in, and you have six potential winners. Jason Anderson fans will feel put out, as he has two P2 finishes in 2024. Okay, so that makes seven riders who are good picks to win in Arlington—so much for narrowing the list down.
- Jett Lawrence is the only two-time winner in 2024. However, six races in, that’s not much of a record, and he was a P3 finisher in Glendale. Regardless, Jett is solidly in the mix for the win.
- The last eight Glendale Supercross rounds have been won by Cooper Webb or Eli Tomac. Webb won in 2019, three times in 2021, and last year. Tomac notched wins in 2018, 2020, and 2022—an every other year pattern. Webb’s on a 1-4-7 streak, which is a concern. There are two patterns to consider for Tomac. Tomac’s results are on-off, going 9-2-9-2-10-4 this year. If that pattern continues, Tomac won’t be anywhere near the top five. However, his 2018-2022-2022 historic win pattern indicates a win. Keep in mind that history isn’t counting for much in 2024.
- Roczen won at AT&T Stadium in 2016, and at the last race in Glendale. Roczen is also on a 12-7-3-1 run, so he is moving in the right direction.
- Chase Sexton has just one podium since his victory in the San Francisco quagmire. Nursing an injury, Sexton struggled to P9 in Glendale. Given that the AMA does not require injury reports—it should—it’s impossible to know what condition Sexton will be in at Arlington. That makes him a risky proposition for any finishing position.
- It has been all downhill for Plessinger after his maiden 450SX win in San Diego. Plessinger is on a 3-6-10 run since the Snapdragon Stadium victory. That is not a good sign. With all that in mind, it’s time to talk turkey and pick a top-five.
- Jett Lawrence and Ken Roczen are the best choices for a win. Jett is 1-3 in the last two rounds, and Roczen is 3-1, making them both excellent podium choices. Jett is leading in the standings, has one more win than Roczen, and one more top-five than Roczen. That tells me to go with Jett for the win and Roczen for P2. Interestingly, neither rider has a P2 finish this year in 12 chances between them.
- The final podium spot is between Jason Anderson and historic winners Eli Tomac and Cooper Webb. Webb has been off the podium the last two rounds and out of the top five in the previous race. Tomac’s good/bad race sequence predicts a “bad” race at Arlington. Anderson has more top-fives than any rider this year, and the same number of podiums as Webb and Tomac. Still, there are all those Arlington wins for Webb and Tomac. However, performance in past years hasn’t meant much this year, so I’m putting Anderson in P3.
- Cooper Webb has beaten Eli Tomac in three of the last four rounds. That’s enough for me to go with Webb for P4 and Tomac to take the final top-five spot.
- Aaron Plessinger is moving in the wrong direction, and we don’t know how Chase Sexton’s hand will be at AT&T Stadium, so they get left out of my top-five picks. Also, I’ll need one more top-five before I start picking Hunter, and I won’t be surprised if he grabs that in Arlington. I haven’t mentioned one-time-this-year top-five rider Dylan Ferrandis. He’s always in the neighborhood, but, well, “one-time-this-year” tells the story.
- The Wild Card is lucky P13, and a few riders are worthy of consideration. Christian Craig is on a 14-13-12 run, so he’s my top choice. McElrath has been in P14 at the last two rounds, so he’s in the mix. Justin Barcia has gone 13-12-18 over the previous three rounds, so don’t discount him, even though it’s hard to believe. Vince Friese was in P13 at the last race, though he was 22-22-16 in the other races he was at.
- You can set your alarm to 7 p.m. ET for the next three rounds. After wild swings in airtimes, it settles down from Arlington through Indianapolis. Regardless, just in case, you’ll want to bookmark our 2024 Supercross Television Schedule. We also have Race Day Live airtimes for those who are disciples of qualifying.
Photography by Align Media, Octopi Media, BrownDogWilson Photography, Feld Entertainment, et al
2024 Arlington Supercross Fantasy Picks
- Jett Lawrence
- Ken Roczen
- Jason Anderson
- Cooper Web
- Eli Tomac
Wild Card P13: Christian Craig
2024 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 6 of 17 rounds)
- Jett Lawrence, Honda, 117 points (2W, 3P, 4 T5)
- Chase Sexton, KTM, 111 (1W, 3P, 4 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, KTM, 108 (1W, 2P, 4 T5)
- Cooper Webb, Yamaha, 107 (1W, 2P, 3 T5)
- Jason Anderson, Kawasaki, 106 (2P, 5 T5)
- Ken Roczen, Suzuki, 102 (1W, 3P, 3 T5)
- Eli Tomac, Yamaha, 100 (2P, 3 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, Honda, 93 (1 T5)
- Hunter Lawrence, 69 (1 T5)
- Justin Barcia, GasGas, 63 (1P, 1 T5)
- Justin Cooper, Yamaha, 60
- Malcolm Stewart, Husqvarna, 51
- Shane McElrath, Suzuki, 49 (1 T5)
- Jorge Prado, GasGas, 45
- Christian Craig, Husqvarna, 39
- Dean Wilson, Honda, 35
- Adam Cianciarulo, Kawasaki, 33
- Derek Drake, Suzuki, 25
- Justin Hill, KTM, 23
- Kyle Chisholm, Suzuki, 18
- Benny Bloss, Beta, 16
- Vince Friese, Honda, 15
- Freddie Norén, Kawasaki, 13
- Cade Clason, Kawasaki, 10
- Austin Politelli, GasGas, 7
- Justin Rodbell, KTM, 5
- Mitchell Harrison, Kawasaki, 4
- Tristan Lane, KTM, 3
- Jason Clermont, Kawasaki, 1
