2024 Ironman Motocross Fantasy Picks and Tips [7 Fast Facts]

Summer is winding down, and that means the end of the 2024 AMA Pro Motocross National Championship Series. The final round is Saturday at Ironman Raceway in Crawfordsville, Indiana. Most of the positions in the standings are settled, or near-settled, so predicting how much each rider will be willing to hang it out before the SuperMotocross World Championship Playoffs start is difficult to gauge. With that caveat in mind, let’s get to the 2024 Ironman motocross fantasy picks for RMFantasyMX.com players, and anyone else looking for a fantasy boost.

1. Hunter Lawrence is motivated to take his first overall win. Lawrence is not shy about it, which tells you how much he wants that first win. Lawrence has nine podiums in 2024, yet he has not nailed down the overall. Lawrence’s other motivation is that he wants the maximum 50 points, just in case series leader Chase Sexton runs into problems. Sexton can play it safe and still easily take the title for the second time in three years. With that in mind, go with Hunter Lawrence to take his first AMA Pro Motocross National overall win.

2. Sexton does not have to push to win the 2024 AMA Pro Motocross National Championship. Sexton has already locked down the #1 seed in the 2024 SuperMotocross World Championship Playoffs, so that’s done. Sexton only needs 22 points to clinch the Pro Motocross series if Lawerence goes 1-1. That means a P2 finish in either moto for Sexton, or something as mundane as a pair of P11 finishes. Sexton hasn’t finished a moto lower than P6 all year, so it’s looking good for Sexton to retake the #1 plate and head into SuperMotocross healthy. Even a risk-averse Sexton will be fast enough for P2 at Ironman Raceway.

3. Aaron Plessinger is Mr. Third. Plessinger has finished in P3 in four of the last five motos, and P3 overall at the previous two rounds. Plessinger trails Justin Cooper by seven points in the SuperMotocross Series standings, so Plessinger wants to make that up. It might even motivate Plessinger to best a cautious Sexton, so there’s a place to take a chance if you want to make up points. For me, it’s Plessinger for P3, again.

4. Just as Aaron Plessinger will want to pass Justin Cooper for P4 in the SuperMotocross seedings, Cooper will want to hold him off. A P4 overall should be enough for Cooper to hold his seven-point lead over Plessinger in the SuperMotocross standings, so look for Cooper to take that spot at Ironman Raceway. The big caveat for a Cooper P4 pick is that he has struggled lately; he is on a 3-7-4-7-20-4 run in the last three rounds. Cooper has been unable to put together two top-five motos in three Nationals coming into the Ironman finale, though he has been in the top-five once at least one moto per round. That’s enough for me to put Cooper in P4.

5. With two P5 finishes in a row, Jason Anderson has found a slot. Anderson’s two possible competitors for the last top-five position are Dylan Ferrandis and Eli Tomac. While Ferrandis has three top-fives in the 2024 Pro Motocross campaign, Anderson has six top-five finishes. So, Ferrandis is an outside chance. Tomac went 4-11 last week in his 2024 Nationals debut. Will he want to hang it out for a top-five result with the World Supercross Championship Series beckoning? I don’t think so. If Tomac gets two good starts, he could be in the top five overall. If not, don’t look for Beast Mode at Ironman Raceway. That means P5 for Anderson.

6. RMFantasyMX loves to make the Wild Card a tough one—it’s P12 this week. You just never know that far down the order. Riders to consider include Romain Pape (12-13 last week) and Freddie Norén (11-12 in the previous two rounds). Other riders with a moto finish within one position of P12 the last two weeks include Phil Nicoletti (twice), Eli Tomac (!), Marshal Weltin, Cullin Park, Grant Harlan, Harri Kullas, and Shane McElrath. Pick one and hope for the best. I’m taking Norén for the P12 Wild Card.

7. It’s the Eastern Time Zone schedule for the Ironman National. Race Day Live streams at 7 a.m. EDT on Peacock, with racing starting at 10 a.m. Check our 2024 Pro Motocross Television Schedule for rebroadcast details.

2024 Ironman Motocross Fantasy Picks

1. Hunter Lawrence
2. Chase Sexton
3. Aaron Plessinger
4. Justin Cooper
5. Jason Anderson

Wild Card P12: Freddie Norén

2024 AMA Pro Motocross National Championship Series Standings (after 10 of 11 rounds)

1. Chase Sexton, KTM, 454 points (6 overall wins, 9 overall podiums, 9 overall Top 5s)
2. Hunter Lawrence, Honda, 426 (9P; 10 T5)
3. Aaron Plessinger, KTM, 359 (5P, 8 T5)
4. Justin Cooper, Yamaha, 337 (3P, 7 T5)
5. Jason Anderson, Kawasaki, 328 (1P, 6 T5)
6. Dylan Ferrandis, Honda, 288 (3 T5)
7. Malcolm Stewart, Husqvarna, 271 (1 T5)
8. Christian Craig, Husqvarna, 217
9. Jett Lawrence, Honda, 210 (4W, 4P, 4 T5)
10. Freddie Norén, Kawasaki, 178
11. Phil Nicoletti, Yamaha, 165
12. Justin Barcia, GasGas, 148 (2 T5)
13. Harri Kullas, KTM, 145
14. Marshal Weltin, Yamaha, 142
15. Grant Harlan, Yamaha, 136
16. Romain Pape, GasGas, 99
17. Shane McElrath, Suzuki/Kawasaki, 97
18. Derek Kelley, KTM, 84
19. Cullin Park, Honda, 82
20. Kyle Chisholm, Suzuki, 68
21. Garrett Marchbanks, Yamaha, 50
22. Kyle Webster, Honda, 45
23. Broc Tickle, Kawasaki, 42
24. Anthony Rodriguez, KTM, 41
25. Justin Hill, KTM, 35
26. Ken Roczen, Suzuki, 31
27. Lorenzo Locurcio, GasGas, 31
28. Eli Tomac, Yamaha, 29
29. Dean Wilson, Honda, 29
30. Jerry Robin, Yamaha, 22
31. Jeremy Hand, Honda, 21
32. Alvin Östlund, Honda, 20
33. Henry Jacobi, KTM, 17
34. Gert Krestinov, Honda, 15
35. Cooper Webb, Yamaha, 14
36. Henry Miller, Honda, 13
37. Max Miller, Suzuki, 13
38. Colt Nichols, Suzuki, 11
39. Scotty Verhaeghe, GasGas, 9
40. James Harrington, Yamaha, 8
41. Bryce Shelly, Yamaha, 6
42. John Short, Kawasaki, 5
43. Trevin Nelson, Yamaha, 5
44. Ryder Floyd, Honda, 4
45. Carson Brown, Yamaha, 3
46. Tristan Lane, KTM, 3
47. Jake Masterpool, GasGas, 3
48. Tristan Purdon, Husqvarna, 1